El Niño in Pacific this year likely to surpass 1997-1998 event
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE PACIFIC?
Drought
Hight risk of severe drought in PNG,
Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, Niue and Cook Island. The risk of drought is also high for Palau, Northern Marianas and Guam, FSM and Marshall Islands.
Increased rainfall
Above normal rainfall is expected in Kiribati between June and August 2015
Cyclones
There is an elevated risk of intense cyclones, potentially early start and late nish of the cyclone season, and an elevated likelihood of cyclones particularly in Niue, Samoa and Cook Islands (east of Tonga).
Diseases
Increased risk of disease by extreme weather events including oods and droughts that can precipitate outbreak of diseases including diarrhoea, leptospirosis and typhoid, by exposure to contaminated water or decreased hygiene due to water shortages; and increased vector borne diseases including dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus due to increase mosquito vectors and increased temperatures that can enhance reproduction and transmission of these viruses.
